Jordan today stands before an extraordinary opportunity: To transform the benefits of being an oasis of stability in a region full of turmoil from one or two-year growth rates into sustainable development and a permanent economic advantage built on water, energy, transport, logistics, and production.
The Economic Modernisation Programme 20262029 includes 392 projects, with private-sector partnerships amounting to nearly JD10 billion, especially in energy, water, transport, and infrastructure.
The government also notes that the indicative direct cost of the executive programme is about JD3.9 billion.
The main projects proposed so far include: The National Water Carrier, the Aqaba–Shidiya railway, the national railway network Aqaba–Amman, development of Aqaba’s container port, the multipurpose port, development of King Hussein Airport in Aqaba, the new King Hussein crossing, electrical interconnection with Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, renewable energy and storge projects, green hydrogen and ammonia, development of the Risha gas field and pipeline, the Amman–Zarqa bus rapid transit, road projects with toll systems, Amra City and the medical university in partnership with the Saudi-Jordanian Investment Fund.
The importance here is not only in the number or size of projects, but in the fact that they address some of the constraints that have long hindered Jordan’s economic development: Water scarcity, high energy costs, weak logistical connections, and high transport costs. If these projects are treated as one integrated system, they will not only create temporary growth but also open the door to permanent development.
The importance here is not only in the number or size of projects, but in the fact that they address some of the constraints that have long hindered Jordan’s economic development: Water scarcity, high energy costs, weak logistical connections, and high transport costs The main projects proposed so far include: The National Water Carrier, the Aqaba–Shidiya railway, the national railway network Aqaba–Amman, development of Aqaba’s container port, the multipurpose port, development of King Hussein What is the expected impact on output? If we assume that the major investments of about JD10 billion are implemented over four years, this means an annual injection of about JD2.5 billion. Since Jordan’s estimated GDP is around JD38–43 billion, this equals roughly 6 per cent of GDP annually before accounting for the multiplier effect.
The Ministry of Finance estimated outstanding debt (excluding Social Security Investment Fund holdings) at about JD35.08 billion, or 91.5 per cent of GDP in Q1 2025, implying a nominal GDP close to JD38.3 billion in that report.
Assuming a conservative spending and investment multiplier (the total increase in GDP resulting from an initial in about 77 per cent.
This is the core idea: The best way to reduce the debt burden is not austerity alone, but expanding the size of the productive economy.
If projects turn into production and exports rather than just capital spending, Jordan’s real growth could exceed the 2.7 per cent forecast by the IMF (increase in spending) between 1.2 and 1.5. This package of projects could generate a cumulative impact on GDP ranging between JD12 and JD15 billion over several years. In other words, the economy could move, if projects are implemented and linked to production and exports, from an output of about JD40 billion to a nominal output approaching JD52–55 billion in the medium term — not just because of spending, but because of the industries and services it creates.
Energy should not only secure electricity, but also reduce production costs and attract investment. What is the impact on public debt? Debt is not measured only by its value, but by its ratio to GDP. If debt remains around JD35.1 billion and GDP rises to JD52 billion, the debt ratio falls arithmetically from 91.5 per cent to about 67 per cent of GDP. Even if nominal debt rises to JD40 billion due to financing some projects, its ratio to a GDP of JD52 billion becomes. How does development become permanent? For lasting impact, projects must be treated as productive economic corridors.
The railway should not only transport phosphates, but also create chemical and manufacturing industries around phosphates and potash.
The port should not only serve shipping, but also reexport, storage, and logistics services. Water should not only be for consumption but also support high-value industries and agriculture. Energy should not only secure electricity, but also reduce production costs and attract investment. In this way, Jordan becomes a true logistics hub, not just a safe country through which trade passes. The difference is significant: Temporary transit yields limited income, while production linked to transit creates jobs, exports, and permanent tax revenues.
If these projects are implemented as an interconnected package, linked to industrial zones, exports, and the private sector, Jordan can transform the effects of the regional crisis from a passing circumstance into a strategic opportunity. Then, the benefit from regional turmoil will not be temporary as in the past, but will become a permanent advantage, thus making Jordan a safe, productive, logistical, and regionally connected hub. Jordan does not only need to build roads, railways, and ports, but to build an economy that uses them to support exports and production; expanding the economic base, reducing the debt ratio, and turning projects into pillars of development.
The author is a former minister of state for economic affairs
Published in the Jordan Times:
https://jordantimes.com/opinion/yusuf-mansur/will-jordans-mega-projects-become-a-path-to-permanent-development
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