بين الحرية والابتكار 30 7 2023

 من الواضح أن الرفض الشعبي واسع النطاق للتعديلات الأخيرة على قانون الجرائم الالكترونية مبرر ومشروع، والأفضل التراجع عن هذه التعديلات كليا لأن من الواضح أنها تهدف لتقليص مساحات الحرية لدى الأفراد والمؤسسات.

تحذّر كتابات ونصائح الحكماء من عواقب تقليص الحريات. فالتاريخ وأسفاره التي ينهل ويتعلم منه ومنها كل ذو بصيرة يروي العديد من القصص التي ينبغي أن توجّه فكر وإجراءات كل مسؤول عن مستقبل الاقتصاد الأردني.

لقد وصف أمارتيا سين، الحائز على جائزة نوبل واقتصادي التنمية المشهور عالميًا، "التنمية" بأنها "حرية" ، ومن هنا جاء كتابه الرائع، "التنمية كحرية"، حيث جادل فيه بأن الحرية ليست فقط الهدف الرئيسي للتنمية بل الوسيلة الرئيسية اليها. ومن بين تأكيدات سين الأساسية أن الحرية السياسية والشفافية مترابطتان بشكل كبير. ولضمان الشفافية، التي هي أفضل علاج للفساد والريعية، يجب أن تكون هناك حرية للصحافة بكافة أشكالها.

ولكي لا يقال أن هذا كلام تنظير وفلسفة، دعونا نزور قصة تاريخية حقيقية من الكتاب الهام "لماذا تفشل الأمم"، بقلم دارون أشيموغلو وجيمس روبنسون حول طباعة الكتب. قدم يوهانس جوتنبرج للعالم في عام 1445، مطبعة للكتب في مدينة مينز بألمانيا لتصبح طباعة الكتب من خلال الآلات (بدلا من الممارسة السابقة وهي الكتابة باليد) وبالتالي انخفضت تكلفة الطباعة بنسبة 90٪، وأصبح التعلم أكثر سهولة وتحسنت إمكانية الوصول الى العلم والآداب تحسنا كبيرا. وفي غضون 15 سنة (عام 1460) تم إنشاء مطبعة أخرى في مدينة ستراسبورغ بفرنسا، وتأسست بعدها مباشرة مطابع في روما والبندقية. وفي عام 1476، تم إنشاء مطبعة في لندن تلتها مطبعة أخرى في أكسفورد عام 1478. وبالنتيجة انتشرت المطابع في جميع أنحاء أوروبا في غضون ثلاثة عقود، وبدأت أوروبا في القراءة والتطور والتعلم لتصبح دولها بعد ذلك دولا متقدمة يسودها الرخاء.

وماذا عن الشرق؟ في عام 1485، منع السلطان العثماني بايزيد الثاني  المسلمين الذين كانوا تحت حكمه من الطباعة باللغة العربية، وأكد السلطان سليم الأول الحظر في عام 1515. وفي عام 1727، أي بعد ما يقارب ثلاثة قرون من اختراع المطبعة وانتشارها في الغرب، منح السلطان أحمد الثالث إذنًا بممارسة الطباعة لشخص واحد (إبراهيم موترفريكا) شريطة أن يقرأ الكتب المطبوعة ثلاثة من كبار قضاة الدولة يشرف عليهم وعلى العملية برمتها قاض رابع بحجة التأكد من عدم وجود أخطاء في المطبوعات. وكما هو متوقع، طُبع عدد قليل من الكتب في ظل هذه الرقابة الخانقة، حيث تم طباعة 17 كتابًا فقط في ظل الحكم العثماني خلال 1729- 1743.

أما بالنسبة للدول التي كانت تحت الحكم العثماني ومنها العالم العربي. للأسف، أصبحت المنطقة بأكملها متأخرة بثلاثة قرون ونصف عن بقية العالم، حيث لم يتم إدخال الطباعة إلا في مصر عام 1798 عندما ترك جيش نابليون بونابرت المنسحب خلفه مطبعة لتصبح من خلالها مصر رائدة المنطقة من حيث المنتجات الثقافية والعلمية.

وهنالك قصص أكثر حداثة كقصة الدولة العربية التي حظرت اقتناء او استخدام جهاز الفاكس حتى عام 1999. وقصة دولة أخرى في المنطقة منعت مواطنيها من الحصول على جوازات سفر حتى الستينيات لكي لا يتعرفوا على كيف يعيش ويُحكم الناس في العالم الخارجي.

المغزى من سرد هذه القصص، إن لم يكن واضحًا للآن، هو أن من أكثر التدبيرات أو الإجراءات الحكومية كسلاً (تخفف الجهد على البيروقراطي وتريحه بينما تضر بالأمة وتطورها) هو حظر النشاط بدلاً من تنظيمه بشكل صحيح ومفيد للأمة. فأي دولة تدعي أنها تسعى إلى الحداثة والتنمية لا تقبل أن تكون تشريعاتها حافلة بالتهديدات والعقوبات المشددة والغرامات المبالغ فيها وأوصاف غامضة للجرائم المحتملة والنية الواضحة للداني والقاصي بتقليص الحريات.

أليس من الأجدى للأردن أن يرفض هذه المسوّدة البائسة لتعديلات قانون الجرائم الالكترونية وأن نركّز بدلا من ذلك على تنفيذ بنود رؤية التحديث الاقتصادي وتحقيق معاييرها (ومن بينها إيجاد 100,000 وظيفة هذا العام أو منذ عام من إطلاق الرؤية)؟؟؟؟

Preserving freedom and progress – Why rejection of the Cyber Security Law amendments is justified - 30 July 2023

The widespread rejection and disdain of the recent amendments to the Cyber Security Law are justified. The writings and advice of the stoics warn of the consequences of curtailing freedoms, and history, and that scholar that teaches the wise, tells many a story that should guide those in charge of Jordan's destiny now.

Amartya Sen, a Nobel laureate and world-renowned development economist, described the development as freedom. Hence, his magnum opus, "Development as Freedom," where he argued that freedom is both the principal objective of development and the primary means of development.

There must be freedom of the press in all its forms
Among Sen's primary assertions is that political freedom and transparency are highly interlinked. To ensure transparency, which is the best cure for corruption and rent-seeking, there must be freedom of the press in all its forms.

But enough of theory, let us take a look at history
But enough talk of theory and philosophy; let us visit a true historical story from the great book, "Why Nations Fail," by Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson.

In 1445, in Mainz, Germany, Johannes Gutenberg presented to the world his book press. Before him, books were written by hand, which made the books costly and only accessible to the clergy and the rich.

The cost of printing thus fell by 90 percent and learning became more accessible and possible. Within 15 years, in 1460, a press was established in Strasbourg, France, followed immediately thereafter by presses in Rome and Venice. In 1476, a press was set up in London, and another was set up in Oxford in 1478. Within three decades, presses were spread all over Europe, and Europe began to read and develop.

Three judges to rule
On the other hand, in 1485, the Ottoman Sultan, Bayazid II, banned Muslims under his rule from printing in Arabic, and Sultan Selim I enforced the ban in 1515.

In 1727, almost three centuries after the invention of the press, Sultan Ahmed III granted one man, Ibrahim Muterferrika, permission to print.

However, three judges had to read the printed books to ensure that there were no mistakes in them. A fourth judge supervised the whole process. As expected, few books were printed under this stifling control process. Only 17 books were printed under Ottoman rule during 1729-1743. Consequently, Ibrahim and his offspring gave up the press in 1797.

As for the countries under Ottoman rule, the press was only introduced in 1798 in Egypt when Napoleon’s army left it behind. And no wonder why Egypt came to lead the region in terms of cultural and scientific products. Meanwhile, the whole region was three and a half centuries behind the rest of the world.

The fax became obsolete
Another story is the ban on the fax machine in a neighbouring country until 1999, by which time the use of the fax was becoming obsolete as email replaced it. Another country banned its citizens from having passports until the 1960s so they would not be exposed to how people are governed in the outside world.

The moral of recounting these stories, if it is not apparent by now, is that one of the laziest exercises in governance, one that relieves the bureaucrat and harms the nation and its development, is to ban an activity instead of properly regulating it.

The many implied threats of severe punishments, exaggerated fines, vague descriptions of would-be crimes, and the obvious intent of curtailment of freedoms do not belong to a state that claims to seek modernity and development.

Let us focus elsewhere
Let us just do away with this miserable draft and focus on implementing the Economic Modernization Vision (EMV) and achieving its benchmarks (among the 100,000 jobs created this year or was it a year from its launch, I wonder!).

Published in Jordan News: 

https://www.jordannews.jo/Section-36/Opinion/Preserving-freedom-and-progress-30013 

Mail my package, please (16 July 2023)

A recent flurry of complaints has surfaced yet again about the spread of mail orders and the eased customs regulations on packages valued at less than JD200, placing customs fees/taxes at JD5–10 per package. The attack on mail orders has focused on the losses to the importing merchants as customers choose to purchase through mail orders.

However, the arguments used are not only remiss but also one-sided and lack comprehensiveness.

Retailers in Jordan complain that such a practice, allowing packages of mail-order purchases to enter the Kingdom at such a small fee, is harmful to them and the government budget (they claim that the government loses out on what can be more revenue in customs). Hence, they are asking for a revision of current regulations. Additionally, they claim that those who purchase through mail-ordered packages risk being sold fake products and will suffer from being unable to return the items.

The claim regarding the budget is meant to urge the government to tax the mail parcels further. Such an argument is bogus as it is unlikely that the government would generate any revenue if it were to depart from the current regulation and go into over-taxation. Simply put, people would stop buying through the mail, and the government would lose the revenue it currently generates from the current 1.1 million mail parcels per year.

Also, it is well established in the economic literature that if a tax rate is doubled, its deadweight loss (the overall economic loss in an economy caused by a new tax on a product) will quadruple. In other words, the excess burden on the economy (buyers and sellers) will increase faster than revenue increases. It is, therefore, important when suggesting policy changes to consider not only the change in government revenue a tax increase would cause but also the increased deadweight loss the tax increase would perpetuate.

Furthermore, many of those that use mail orders from overseas are guaranteed the authenticity of the products (while some stores in Jordan offer fakes unbeknown to the buyers) and are offered return policies, including money-back guarantees that are not commonly available in the retail stores in Jordan.

Moreover, people who order goods via mail seek alternatives, the newest or modern varieties, and options that may be available outside the Jordanian market. Most Jordanian retailers do not turn over their products quickly and keep displaying old merchandise. One reason for this is the excessive taxation paid on such products. Hence, buyers would not purchase the offered retail product because it is not what they want. A policy such as raising tax that limits their choices is a lazy and blunt instrument, to say the least.

The real problem that retailers suffer from when it comes to imports is not mail parcels but the high and numerous taxes and fees. Jordanians pay 121 types of taxes and fees. Look, for example, at some of the taxes that importers face: Tariff tax, unified additional tax, general sales tax, fines, deposits, and insurance, fees for combustible materials, payments to revitalize tobacco cultivation, rewards, and endeavours, universities, and municipalities, subsidy fees for agricultural products, other department fees, veterinary fees, passport fees, livestock census fees, stamp fees, fees for displaying cinematic film, overload fines, walking fees, road tolls, drawing paintings of Jordanian products, inspection fee, additional tax, social affairs tax, insurance for Al-Hussein City for Youth, insurance for the Directorate of Civil Aviation, taxes for municipalities,  taxes for universities, additional tax, and import fees.

Such a baffling and innovative array of taxes fees can best be described as a comedy of compiled errors. Can you imagine what a dilemma tax compliance is for importers? Also, they have to pay the import duties and fees whether they end up selling the product, which explains why retailer turnover of goods is extremely low. 

Alas, the creativity of the legislature and executive branches of government in the search for a fistful of dinars and a few dinars more is genuinely baffling. Instead of restricting people’s choices as a policy response, let’s lower the taxes and fees, which is where the problem lies. It is not the fault of people that they decide to maximize their own choices and utilities; and it is not a bad that foreign producers and shippers are mass customizing and shipping efficiently; in developed countries where customs duties and fees are low, governments hardly ever face such a complaint about mail orders.

Published on Jordan news:

https://www.jordannews.jo/Section-36/Opinion/Mail-my-package-please-29756

Busting economic myths, Jordan does not consume more than it produces 10 July 2023

International development organizations such as the World Bank and the IMF often claim that Jordanians consume more than they produce, raising concerns about the economy's sustainability. However, historical data contradicts this claim, demonstrating that it is not always the case.

Let us examine the historical data using the ratio of final consumption expenditure (household and government) to GDP, as provided by the World Bank. From 1976 to 1985, this ratio stood at 113 percent, driven by aid inflows and rising incomes in the oil-producing Gulf countries. In 1986-1989, the ratio was 100 percent, indicating a balance between expenditures and income. Toward the end of this period, expenditures were even lower than income (99 percent and 95 percent in 1988 and 1989, respectively). From 1990 to 1999, consumption relative to GDP was 95 percent, consistently lower than income. In the period from 2000 to 2019, consumption accounted for 98 percent of income.

Jordan is not consuming more than it produces
These findings indicate that Jordan is not consuming more than it produces. However, the country's spending has a limited impact on labor productivity, resulting in a decline in per capita income. Recently, the World Bank downgraded Jordan's classification from upper middle-income to lower middle-income, attributing the change to adjustments in population estimates used to calculate per capita income.

Thus, earning Jordan the dubious honour of being the only country last year whose classification has been downgraded.

Proves to be harmful
Government consumption expenditure not only fails to enhance productivity and competitiveness but also proves to be harmful. Why? Because it is pro-cyclical, increasing during times of high private demand and decreasing during low private demand, contrary to John Maynard Keynes' counter-cyclical theory.

The recent 2.8 percent increase in GDP in the first quarter should not be cause for celebration. It should be compared with the first quarter of 2022 when growth was 2.5 percent, rather than the fourth quarter. Additionally, the growth is not attributed to government economic policies, decrees, strategies, or actions. Instead, it is primarily driven by government services and the banking sector, which does not indicate a significant recovery.

So, the famous phrase uttered by the Noble Laureate economist Milton Friedman “We are all Keynesians now,” which refers to the government’s involvement in the economy to spur total demand in times of low economic activity, does not apply to Jordan. In fact, in Jordan, we are not Keynesian now, we were never Keynesian and looks like we are not likely to become Keynesian any time soon.

In conclusion, Jordan needs to fit the Keynesian economic model, which emphasizes government intervention during periods of low economic activity. The country has never adhered to this model and is unlikely to adopt it in the future. Can we change this paradigm? I hope that we can, instead of the eat, pray, and love version we are going with now.

Published in Jordan News:

https://www.jordannews.jo/Section-36/Opinion/Busting-economic-myths-Jordan-does-not-consume-more-than-it-produces-29655